Tracking Fuel Prices in UK as conflict in Middle East remains volatile

Ongoing conflict in the Middle East, specifically involving Iran, the US, and Israel continues to cause significant disruption to oil production and shipping, resulting in a sharp rise in global oil prices and subsequent fuel surcharges for UK transport providers.

With the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, global shipping and energy volatility, are facing major challenges for global supply chains and indeed economic stability.

Demand for oil is expected to outstrip supply until the final quarter of the year even if flows resume through the Strait of Hormuz, depleting inventories and driving further price volatility, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned.

Oil prices moved from roughly $60 per barrel in January 2026 to over $100 in early May, with some reports indicating spikes exceeding $115 per barrel as the conflict continues. The situation is volatile, with the impact on fuel prices depending on the duration of the conflict. The RAC is tracking how pump prices in the UK are being affected by the conflict in the Middle East.